MagellanPlus Workshop: mission-specific platform approaches to assessing natural hazards that impact society
Center for Subsurface Energy and the Environment, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
João C. Duarte
Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Lisbon 1749-016, Portugal
Ake Fagereng
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3AT, UK
Raphaël Paris
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Clermont-Auvergne, 63178 Aubiere CEDEX, Clermont-Ferrand, France
Patricia Persaud
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
Ángela María Gómez-García
GEO3BCN, CSIC, Lluís Solé Sabarís/n, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
A full list of authors appears at the end of the paper.
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Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Emmie M. Bonilauri, Andrew J. L. Harris, Matteo Cerminara, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Augusto Neri, Raphaël Paris, Marco Pistolesi, Matteo Trolese, Juan F. Rodríguez-Gálvez, Daniele Andronico, Antonella Bertagnini, Sonia Calvari, Daniele Casalbore, Michael Cassidy, Riccardo Civico, Elisabetta Del Bello, Alessio Di Roberto, Alessandro Fornaciai, Anita Grezio, Lucia Gurioli, Carl B. Harbitz, Giorgio Lacanna, Finn Løvholt, Michael Marani, Massimo Pompilio, Tullio Ricci, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Roger Urgeles, and Marija Voloschina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1310, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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This study examines tsunami hazards linked to volcanic activity at Stromboli volcano, Italy and is aimed at developing a first Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment. In particular, in this study a review identified 16 tsunamis (1879–2024), mostly linked to paroxysmal eruptions. Expert elicitation suggests tsunamigenic landslides may recur every 10–12 years, with high likelihood along the Sciara del Fuoco, especially at mid-elevations and moderate volumes, informing future hazard assessment.
Rónadh Cox, Mary C. Bourke, Max Engel, Andrew B. Kennedy, Annie Lau, Serge Suanez, Sarah J. Boulton, Maria Alexandra Oliveira, Raphaël Paris, Dimitra Salmanidou, Michaela Spiske, Wayne Stephenson, Storm Roberts, Adam D. Switzer, Nadia Mhammdi, Niamh D. Cullen, and Masashi Watanabe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4203–4226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4203-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4203-2025, 2025
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Coastal boulder deposits record extreme wave events, both storm and tsunami. Fully understanding hazards as recorded in these deposits requires high-quality data for comparison among sites and over time. We analysed methodologies and constructed a comprehensive set of field measurements to improve data consistency and reproducibility. We aim to help geomorphologists produce of data that can be widely shared and used to build extensive analytic understanding of coastal boulder deposits.
Montserrat Torne, Tiago M. Alves, Ivone Jiménez-Munt, Joao Carvalho, Conxi Ayala, Elsa C. Ramalho, Angela María Gómez-García, Hugo Matias, Hanneke Heida, Abraham Balaguera, José Luis García-Lobón, and Jaume Vergés
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1275–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1275-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1275-2025, 2025
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Sediments are like history books for geologists and geophysicists. By studying them, we can learn about past environments, sea level and climate changes, and where the sediments came from. To aid in understanding the geology, georesources, and potential hazards in the Iberian Peninsula and its surrounding seas, we present the SedDARE-IB sediment data repository. As an application in geothermal exploration, we investigate how sediment thickness affects the depth of the 150 °C isotherm.
Roberto Basili, Laurentiu Danciu, Céline Beauval, Karin Sesetyan, Susana Pires Vilanova, Shota Adamia, Pierre Arroucau, Jure Atanackov, Stéphane Baize, Carolina Canora, Riccardo Caputo, Michele Matteo Cosimo Carafa, Edward Marc Cushing, Susana Custódio, Mine Betul Demircioglu Tumsa, João C. Duarte, Athanassios Ganas, Julián García-Mayordomo, Laura Gómez de la Peña, Eulàlia Gràcia, Petra Jamšek Rupnik, Hervé Jomard, Vanja Kastelic, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Raquel Martín-Banda, Sara Martínez-Loriente, Marta Neres, Hector Perea, Barbara Šket Motnikar, Mara Monica Tiberti, Nino Tsereteli, Varvara Tsironi, Roberto Vallone, Kris Vanneste, Polona Zupančič, and Domenico Giardini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3945–3976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3945-2024, 2024
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This study presents the European Fault-Source Model 2020 (EFSM20), a dataset of 1248 geologic crustal faults and four subduction systems, each having the necessary parameters to forecast long-term earthquake occurrences in the European continent. This dataset constituted one of the main inputs for the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model 2020, a key instrument to mitigate seismic risk in Europe. EFSM20 adopts recognized open-standard formats, and it is openly accessible and reusable.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
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Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Ángela María Gómez-García, Álvaro González, Mauro Cacace, Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth, and Gaspar Monsalve
Solid Earth, 15, 281–303, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-281-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-281-2024, 2024
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We compute a realistic three-dimensional model of the temperatures down to 75 km deep within the Earth, below the Caribbean Sea and northwestern South America. Using this, we estimate at which rock temperatures past earthquakes nucleated in the region and find that they agree with those derived from laboratory experiments of rock friction. We also analyse how the thermal state of the system affects the spatial distribution of seismicity in this region.
Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3607–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022, 2022
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We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.
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Short summary
Natural hazards associated with the ocean can have a direct impact on coastal populations and even affect populations located far away from the coast. These hazards may interact, and they include tsunamis that result in major damage and catastrophic loss of life and submarine landslides, which themselves can produce tsunamis and damage subsea infrastructure. We present ideas for investigating these hazards with scientific ocean drilling.
Natural hazards associated with the ocean can have a direct impact on coastal populations and...

